2024 will be remembered as an extraordinary year for Argentine financial assets. Stocks, bonds, and the market as a whole delivered exceptional returns, against a backdrop of exchange-rate stability and asset appreciation in real terms.
In December, financial dollar rates paused the convergence toward the official exchange rate that had been underway in previous months. Despite the year's standout returns, structural risks and limited prospects for future gains suggest that the room to keep capturing upside from Argentine asset revaluation may be starting to narrow.
The MERVAL index rose 12% in pesos and 2.5% in dollars during December, closing the year up 173% in pesos and 131% in dollars. This performance highlights both asset appreciation and notable exchange-rate stability.
Sovereign bonds: improved perception of Argentine risk
- AL30D: +6% in December and +115% for the year.
- AL35D: +4% in December and +95% for the year.
- AE38D: +5% in December and +108% for the year.
The EMBI country-risk index fell 16% in December and 67% over the full year, underscoring a lower market perception of Argentine risk.
Exchange-rate stability and moderating inflation
The CCL dollar closed December at $1,187, up 7% for the month and 19% for the year. The official dollar rate stood at $1,032.50, after a 28% annual increase.
On inflation, preliminary data projects a December CPI of between 2% and 3%, putting annual inflation at around 117% — a clear downward trend.
Outlook
A key election year is beginning, in which the government will focus its efforts on consolidating the economic recovery and continuing to bring down inflation, aiming to improve its standing ahead of October's legislative elections.
The outlook for 2025 appears binary: in a positive scenario, attractive returns could be sustained, though far from 2024's extraordinary results. In a negative scenario, high volatility and market pressure could significantly affect investments.
As prices rise, the risk-reward balance deteriorates. For conservative investors, now is the time to rebalance portfolios toward more stable, diversified alternatives.